Boulder, CO Pending Home Sales: The PHSI and What Does it Mean?

Posted by Phil Boren on Thursday, May 6th, 2010 at 2:46pm.

boulder real estate market, phsi, boulder pending homes sales Boulder, CO pending home sales: What is the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), and what does it mean? Looking at historical home-sales statistics gives us some market trending perspective, but a forward-looking indicator, like the PHSI, gives us a good way to gauge what's ahead in the real estate market. Also known as a "leading" indicator, we can often spot emerging trends with this index.

Each month the National Association of Realtors (NAR), publishes their PHSI, which gives ratings based on a historical baseline going back to 1991. On a national basis the PHSI was up about 5% in March 2010 vs. February. Even more impressive is the fact that it was up year over year in March by about 21%. Great. What about something a little closer to home?

In the Western Region (which is as local as NAR gets with their index), the numbers actually stack up a little differently. Looking at the data, it looks like the index peaked last Fall when the previous federal tax credit for 1st-time home buyers was set to expire. Since then, the regional index has flattened out a bit - although we were up 8.8% in March, year over year. Not bad, but nowhere near the national increase of about 21%.

pending home sales index, phsi, boulder real estate market

Using NAR's seasonally-adjusted figures for the Wester Region, it looks as though the federal tax credit played a declining roll in the PHSI as we moved from the end of 2009 through March of this year. In the Boulder real etate market, we have seen the lower-end price ranges make up a significant portion of the overall sales during this time period. Using IRES data through May 4, 2010, the Boulder market segment with the lowest inventory level was homes up to $250K, with 7.5 months. Upper-end price ranges - say above $1.5M - have largely been ignored by Boulder buyers lately, resulting in the highest inventory level in our market, of 39.4 months. Probably temporary, but also influenced by the relatively shallow secondary market for jumbo loans. That, too, is starting to change for the better.

Now that the federal tax credit opportunity expired on April 30th, what does this data mean for our regional and local real estate markets? On a regional level, we're likely to be less affected by the expiration, as the PHSI numbers hav leveled off from the peak. Locally, it remains to be seen how the numbers will shake out, but if the month of April is any indicator, things are definitely looking up! RE/MAX of Boulder put a record number of properties under contract in the month of April!

Home mortgage rates are still at attractive levels, but have ticked up slightly. Rising interest rates continue to be a much more important factor thatn the temporary federal tax credit, making the timing of your decision about buying a Boulder home an important one.

If you're interested in the Boulder real estate market and would like more information about a particular property or Boulder neighborhood, feel free to contact us.

Phil Boren
Direct: 303-441-5647
Email: pboren@remax.net
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